Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100

Abstract We provide the magnitude of a worst case scenario for extreme sea levels (ESLs) along global coastline by 2100. This ESLs is calculated as combination surface height associated with storm surge and wave (100 year return period, 95th percentile), high tide (the percentile) low probability level rise percentile). Under these conditions, end-of-21st century have 5% chance exceeding 4.2 m (global coastal average), compared to 2.6 during baseline period (1980–2014). By 2100 almost 45% would experience above mean m, up 9–10 East China Sea, Japan North European areas. Up 86% locations face 3 period) 2100, 33% currently. 90% increases in are driven future rise, compare 10% changes surges waves. 2030–2040 present-day 100 be experienced at least once tropical 100-fold increase frequency will take place on all coastlines